Pohronie 3–1 Zlaté Moravce: Result & Stats

Pohronie

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Zlaté Moravce

H. Martinovic 71'

P. Kutka 26'

M. Hydara 7'

S. Hodur 5'

10/10/2025

2. liga · Round 12Futbalový štadión Žiar nad Hronom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Pohronie39%

×Draw24%

Zlaté Moravce36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PohronieExpected goals in this matchZlaté Moravce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.46

Pohronie

1.53

Zlaté Moravce

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 28 away

1.74

creates per match

1.57

1.34

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Pohronie

1.74

Zlaté Moravce

1.57

allows per match

Pohronie

1.34

Zlaté Moravce

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pohronie+0.00on par

Zlaté Moravce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohronie ↓

Zlaté Moravce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Pohronie or draw

64%

Pohronie or Zlaté Moravce

76%

Draw or Zlaté Moravce

61%

Winning margin

Pohronie wins by 2+

19%

Zlaté Moravce wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Pohronie 1+ goals

78%

Pohronie 2+ goals

45%

Pohronie 3+ goals

20%

Zlaté Moravce 1+ goals

77%

Zlaté Moravce 2+ goals

43%

Zlaté Moravce 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Pohronie (draw refunded)

52%

Zlaté Moravce (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohronie at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

Zlaté Moravce away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohronie attack 1.74 + Zlaté Moravce defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.53

Zlaté Moravce attack 1.57 + Pohronie defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pohronie scores more

39%

level

24%

Zlaté Moravce scores more

36%

Pohronie at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pohronie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

7'

18'

26'

46'

S. Jobe← M. Khyminets

46'

H. Martinovic← A. Horvat

46'

Y. Diop← D. Duga

46'

A. Pudil← S. Hodur

46'

K. Mondek← J. Kadlec

46'

F. Balaj← M. Halo

50'

54'

70'

71'

75'

78'

84'

84'

J. Port← S. Ivan

84'

S. Subert← M. Hydara

Pohronie

Zlaté

31

4

5

10

14

▼

Duga

17

⚽

▼

Hodur

21

▼

Kadlec

27

Totka

28

▼

Bukata

29

Kuzma

89

▼

Halo

1

Domanisky

9

⚽

Kutka

3

Buhaj

19

Cheprakov

14

▼

Khyminets

12

▼

Divis

16

Gresko

21

▼

Ivan

6

⚽

▼

Hydara

10

Spyrka

7

▼

Horvat

Manager: Erik Grendel

46'▲S. Jobe←▼M. Khyminets

46'▲H. Martinovic←▼A. Horvat

84'▲B. Rusnak←▼T. Divis

84'▲J. Port←▼S. Ivan

84'▲S. Subert←▼M. Hydara

Pohronie substitutes

20Semrinec17Khomych11Jobe13Rusnak4Hrnciar2Dobrotka15Port8Subert18Martinovic

Manager: Juraj Keri

46'▲Y. Diop←▼D. Duga

46'▲A. Pudil←▼S. Hodur

46'▲K. Mondek←▼J. Kadlec

46'▲F. Balaj←▼M. Halo

78'▲M. Tomek←▼M. Bukata

Zlaté Moravce substitutes

84Chudy3Diop9Pudil11Baumgartner16Mondek19Tomek24Macak44Zahumensky45Balaj

Match Recap: Pohronie vs Zlaté Moravce

Pohronie beat Zlaté Moravce 3-1 in 2. liga on October 10, 2025.

Goals: S. Hodur (5'), M. Hydara (7'), P. Kutka (26'), H. Martinovic (71').

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Žiar nad Hronom in Žiar nad Hronom.

Pohronie vs Zlaté Moravce — 2. liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Pohronie vs Zlaté Moravce