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Pohronie vs Spišská Nová Ves — 2. liga 2019

Pohronie
Pohronie
FT
4 – 3
HT: 4 – 0
Spišská Nová Ves
Spišská Nová Ves
8/18/20232. liga2. liga · Round 4Futbalový štadión Žiar nad Hronom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Pohronie63%
×Draw20%
Spišská Nová Ves17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pohronie
2.11
Spišská Nová Ves
0.98

Pohronie creates 115% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 16 away

creates per match

Pohronie
1.78
Spišská Nová Ves
0.56

allows per match

Pohronie
1.41
Spišská Nová Ves
2.44

finishing

Pohronie+0.00on par
Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohronie ↓

Spišská Nová Ves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Pohronie or draw
83%
Pohronie or Spišská Nová Ves
80%
Draw or Spišská Nová Ves
37%

Winning margin

Pohronie wins by 2+
39%
Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pohronie 1+ goals
88%
Pohronie 2+ goals
62%
Pohronie 3+ goals
35%
Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals
62%
Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals
26%
Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pohronie (draw refunded)
79%
Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohronie at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.41 · 58 matches

Spišská Nová Ves away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohronie attack 1.78 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.11

Spišská Nová Ves attack 0.56 + Pohronie defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Pohronie scores more
63%
level
20%
Spišská Nová Ves scores more
17%

Pohronie at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Pohronie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pohronie vs Spišská Nová Ves

Pohronie beat Spišská Nová Ves 4-3 in 2. liga on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Žiar nad Hronom in Žiar nad Hronom.