Pohronie 3–1 Ružomberok: Result & Stats

Pohronie

FT

3 – 1

Ružomberok

5/30/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Futbalový štadión Žiar nad Hronom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Pohronie64%

×Draw20%

Ružomberok16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PohronieExpected goals in this matchRužomberok

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

0.98

Pohronie

2.15

Ružomberok

0.98

Pohronie creates 119% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

2.86

creates per match

0.67

1.29

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Pohronie

2.86

Ružomberok

0.67

allows per match

Pohronie

1.29

Ružomberok

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pohronie+0.00on par

Ružomberok+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohronie ↓

Ružomberok →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Pohronie or draw

84%

Pohronie or Ružomberok

80%

Draw or Ružomberok

36%

Winning margin

Pohronie wins by 2+

40%

Ružomberok wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Pohronie 1+ goals

88%

Pohronie 2+ goals

63%

Pohronie 3+ goals

36%

Ružomberok 1+ goals

62%

Ružomberok 2+ goals

26%

Ružomberok 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Pohronie (draw refunded)

80%

Ružomberok (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohronie at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Ružomberok away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohronie attack 2.86 + Ružomberok defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.15

Ružomberok attack 0.67 + Pohronie defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Pohronie scores more

64%

level

20%

Ružomberok scores more

16%

Pohronie at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Pohronie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff