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Pohronie vs Podkonice — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Pohronie
Pohronie
FT
1 – 1
Podkonice
Podkonice
2/23/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pohronie74%
×Draw13%
Podkonice12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pohronie
3.43
Podkonice
1.40

Pohronie creates 145% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

creates per match

Pohronie
2.86
Podkonice
1.50

allows per match

Pohronie
1.29
Podkonice
4.00

finishing

Pohronie+0.00on par
Podkonice+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohronie ↓

Podkonice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Pohronie or draw
88%
Pohronie or Podkonice
87%
Draw or Podkonice
26%

Winning margin

Pohronie wins by 2+
56%
Podkonice wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pohronie 1+ goals
97%
Pohronie 2+ goals
85%
Pohronie 3+ goals
64%
Podkonice 1+ goals
75%
Podkonice 2+ goals
41%
Podkonice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pohronie (draw refunded)
86%
Podkonice (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohronie at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Podkonice away — creates 1.50, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohronie attack 2.86 + Podkonice defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.43

Podkonice attack 1.50 + Pohronie defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Pohronie scores more
74%
level
13%
Podkonice scores more
12%

Pohronie at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Pohronie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Pohronie 1–1 Podkonice

Pohronie and Podkonice drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 23, 2024.