Pohronie 3–5 Podbrezová: Result & Stats

Pohronie

FT

3 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Podbrezová

P. Mazan 83'

S. Pekar 78'

L. Okunola 36'

S. Fasko 89'

P. Blahut 72'

M. Bartos 48'

S. Datko 35'

M. Kuzma 13' (pen)

7/15/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Futbalový štadión Žiar nad Hronom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pohronie60%

×Draw19%

Podbrezová21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PohronieExpected goals in this matchPodbrezová

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.48

Pohronie

2.54

Podbrezová

1.48

Pohronie creates 72% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

2.81

creates per match

1.47

1.50

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Pohronie

2.81

Podbrezová

1.47

allows per match

Pohronie

1.50

Podbrezová

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pohronie+0.00on par

Podbrezová+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohronie ↓

Podbrezová →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Pohronie or draw

79%

Pohronie or Podbrezová

81%

Draw or Podbrezová

40%

Winning margin

Pohronie wins by 2+

39%

Podbrezová wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Pohronie 1+ goals

92%

Pohronie 2+ goals

72%

Pohronie 3+ goals

46%

Podbrezová 1+ goals

77%

Podbrezová 2+ goals

43%

Podbrezová 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Pohronie (draw refunded)

74%

Podbrezová (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohronie at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Podbrezová away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohronie attack 2.81 + Podbrezová defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.54

Podbrezová attack 1.47 + Pohronie defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Pohronie scores more

60%

level

19%

Podbrezová scores more

21%

Pohronie at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Pohronie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

M. KuzmaPenalty

35'

S. Datko

36'

L. Okunola

48'

M. Bartos

72'

P. Blahut

78'

S. Pekar

83'

P. Mazan

89'

S. Fasko

Statistics

PohroniePodbrezová

Overview

5Corners2