Pohronie 2–2 Liptovský Mikuláš: Result & Stats

Pohronie

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Liptovský Mikuláš

5/2/2026

2. liga · Round 28Futbalový štadión Žiar nad Hronom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Pohronie42%

×Draw23%

Liptovský Mikuláš35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PohronieExpected goals in this matchLiptovský Mikuláš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.53

Pohronie

1.71

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.53

Pohronie creates 12% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 67 away

1.78

creates per match

1.66

1.41

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Pohronie

1.78

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.66

allows per match

Pohronie

1.41

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pohronie+0.00on par

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohronie ↓

Liptovský Mikuláš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Pohronie or draw

65%

Pohronie or Liptovský Mikuláš

77%

Draw or Liptovský Mikuláš

58%

Winning margin

Pohronie wins by 2+

22%

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Pohronie 1+ goals

82%

Pohronie 2+ goals

51%

Pohronie 3+ goals

24%

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals

78%

Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals

45%

Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Pohronie (draw refunded)

55%

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohronie at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.41 · 58 matches

Liptovský Mikuláš away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.64 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohronie attack 1.78 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.71

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.66 + Pohronie defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pohronie scores more

42%

level

23%

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more

35%

Pohronie at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pohronie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff