Pohronie 2–1 Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

Pohronie

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

A. Masaryk 53'

F. Silhart 32' (pen)

M. Schlossar 41'

1/29/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Pohronie61%

×Draw18%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PohronieExpected goals in this matchBaník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.55

1.45

Pohronie

2.55

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

1.45

Pohronie creates 76% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

2.81

creates per match

1.40

1.50

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Pohronie

2.81

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

1.40

allows per match

Pohronie

1.50

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pohronie+0.00on par

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohronie ↓

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Pohronie or draw

79%

Pohronie or Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

82%

Draw or Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

39%

Winning margin

Pohronie wins by 2+

40%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Pohronie 1+ goals

92%

Pohronie 2+ goals

72%

Pohronie 3+ goals

46%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1+ goals

77%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 2+ goals

42%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Pohronie (draw refunded)

75%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohronie at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohronie attack 2.81 + Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.55

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom attack 1.40 + Pohronie defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Pohronie scores more

61%

level

18%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom scores more

21%

Pohronie at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Pohronie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

F. SilhartPenalty

41'

M. Schlossar

53'

A. Masaryk

Pohronie

Baník

Manager: M. Čobik Ferčik

Manager: D. Oravec