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Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta vs Rumori Calcio — Cup 2020

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Rumori Calcio
Rumori Calcio
E. Pašun 85' (pen), 82'
G. Vivas 78'
T. Leszczynski 52'
S. Mohammadi 32', 10'
6/22/2023CupCup · 64th FinalsSõle Gümnaasiumi Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta61%
×Draw16%
Rumori Calcio23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
3.50
Rumori Calcio
2.17

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta creates 61% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
3.33
Rumori Calcio
2.33

allows per match

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
2.00
Rumori Calcio
3.67

finishing

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta+0.00on par
Rumori Calcio+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta ↓

Rumori Calcio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–35%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta or draw
77%
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta or Rumori Calcio
84%
Draw or Rumori Calcio
39%

Winning margin

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta wins by 2+
43%
Rumori Calcio wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta 1+ goals
97%
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta 2+ goals
85%
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta 3+ goals
66%
Rumori Calcio 1+ goals
89%
Rumori Calcio 2+ goals
64%
Rumori Calcio 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta (draw refunded)
73%
Rumori Calcio (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta at home — creates 3.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Rumori Calcio away — creates 2.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta attack 3.33 + Rumori Calcio defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.50

Rumori Calcio attack 2.33 + Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta scores more
61%
level
16%
Rumori Calcio scores more
23%

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
S. Mohammadi
32'
S. Mohammadi
52'
T. Leszczynski
78'
G. Vivas
82'
E. Pašun
85'
E. PašunPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta vs Rumori Calcio

Rumori Calcio beat Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta 4-2 in Cup on June 22, 2023.

Goals: S. Mohammadi (10', 32'), T. Leszczynski (52'), G. Vivas (78'), E. Pašun (82', 85' pen).

The match was played at Sõle Gümnaasiumi Staadion in Tallinn.