Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta 4–2 Jõgeva Wolves

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta

4 – 2

Jõgeva Wolves

7/29/2020

Cup · 64th FinalsSõle Gümnaasiumi Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta63%

×Draw16%

Jõgeva Wolves21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Põhja-Tallinna JK VoltaExpected goals in this matchJõgeva Wolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.17

1.83

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta

3.17

Jõgeva Wolves

1.83

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta creates 73% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

3.33

creates per match

1.67

2.00

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta

3.33

Jõgeva Wolves

1.67

allows per match

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta

2.00

Jõgeva Wolves

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta+0.00on par

Jõgeva Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta ↓

Jõgeva Wolves →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta or draw

79%

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta or Jõgeva Wolves

84%

Draw or Jõgeva Wolves

37%

Winning margin

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta wins by 2+

44%

Jõgeva Wolves wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta 1+ goals

96%

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta 2+ goals

82%

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta 3+ goals

60%

Jõgeva Wolves 1+ goals

84%

Jõgeva Wolves 2+ goals

54%

Jõgeva Wolves 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta (draw refunded)

75%

Jõgeva Wolves (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta at home — creates 3.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Jõgeva Wolves away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta attack 3.33 + Jõgeva Wolves defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.17

Jõgeva Wolves attack 1.67 + Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta scores more

63%

level

16%

Jõgeva Wolves scores more

21%

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff