Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta 4–0 Järva-Jaani

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta

4 – 0

Järva-Jaani

Unknown 48', 36', 30', 4'

9/16/2020

Cup · 32nd FinalsSõle Gümnaasiumi Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta91%

×Draw6%

Järva-Jaani3%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Põhja-Tallinna JK VoltaExpected goals in this matchJärva-Jaani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.92

1.00

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta

4.92

Järva-Jaani

1.00

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta creates 392% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

3.33

creates per match

0.00

2.00

allows per match

6.50

creates per match

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta

3.33

Järva-Jaani

0.00

allows per match

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta

2.00

Järva-Jaani

6.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta+0.00on par

Järva-Jaani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta ↓

Järva-Jaani →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–02%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–04%

2–14%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–08%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (8%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

80%20%4.5

62%38%

Double chance

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta or draw

97%

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta or Järva-Jaani

94%

Draw or Järva-Jaani

Winning margin

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta wins by 2+

80%

Järva-Jaani wins by 2+

Team goals

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta 1+ goals

99%

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta 2+ goals

94%

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta 3+ goals

83%

Järva-Jaani 1+ goals

63%

Järva-Jaani 2+ goals

26%

Järva-Jaani 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta (draw refunded)

97%

Järva-Jaani (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta at home — creates 3.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Järva-Jaani away — creates 0.00, concedes 6.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta attack 3.33 + Järva-Jaani defence 6.50 → ÷2 → 4.92

Järva-Jaani attack 0.00 + Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 91%?"

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta scores more

91%

level

Järva-Jaani scores more

Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

36'

48'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff