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Põhja-Sakala vs Flora Tallinn — Cup 2020

Põhja-Sakala
Põhja-Sakala
FT
0 – 0
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
11/12/2020CupCup · 16th FinalsViljandi linnastaadion kunstmuru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Põhja-Sakala38%
×Draw20%
Flora Tallinn43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Põhja-Sakala
2.19
Flora Tallinn
2.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Põhja-Sakala
3.67
Flora Tallinn
4.00

allows per match

Põhja-Sakala
0.67
Flora Tallinn
0.71

finishing

Põhja-Sakala+0.00on par
Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Põhja-Sakala ↓

Flora Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Põhja-Sakala or draw
57%
Põhja-Sakala or Flora Tallinn
80%
Draw or Flora Tallinn
62%

Winning margin

Põhja-Sakala wins by 2+
21%
Flora Tallinn wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Põhja-Sakala 1+ goals
89%
Põhja-Sakala 2+ goals
64%
Põhja-Sakala 3+ goals
37%
Flora Tallinn 1+ goals
90%
Flora Tallinn 2+ goals
67%
Flora Tallinn 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Põhja-Sakala (draw refunded)
47%
Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Põhja-Sakala at home — creates 3.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Flora Tallinn away — creates 4.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Põhja-Sakala attack 3.67 + Flora Tallinn defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 2.19

Flora Tallinn attack 4.00 + Põhja-Sakala defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Põhja-Sakala scores more
38%
level
20%
Flora Tallinn scores more
43%

Flora Tallinn at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Flora Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Põhja-Sakala vs Flora Tallinn

Põhja-Sakala and Flora Tallinn drew 0-0 in Cup on November 12, 2020.

The match was played at Viljandi linnastaadion kunstmuru in Viljandi.