Pohang Steelers 3–1 Wuhan Three Towns

Pohang Steelers

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Wuhan Three Towns

10/4/2023

AFC Champions League · Group J - 2Steelyard Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pohang Steelers67%

×Draw19%

Wuhan Three Towns15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pohang SteelersExpected goals in this matchWuhan Three Towns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

0.96

Pohang Steelers

2.28

Wuhan Three Towns

0.96

Pohang Steelers creates 138% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

2.23

creates per match

1.00

0.92

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Pohang Steelers

2.23

Wuhan Three Towns

1.00

allows per match

Pohang Steelers

0.92

Wuhan Three Towns

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohang Steelers ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Pohang Steelers or draw

85%

Pohang Steelers or Wuhan Three Towns

81%

Draw or Wuhan Three Towns

33%

Winning margin

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+

44%

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals

90%

Pohang Steelers 2+ goals

66%

Pohang Steelers 3+ goals

39%

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

62%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

25%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)

82%

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohang Steelers at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohang Steelers attack 2.23 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.28

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.00 + Pohang Steelers defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Pohang Steelers scores more

67%

level

19%

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

15%

Pohang Steelers at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Pohang Steelers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff