Pohang Steelers 1–1 Tampines Rovers: Result & Stats

Pohang Steelers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tampines Rovers

11/6/2025

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Pohang Steel Yard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pohang Steelers50%

×Draw25%

Tampines Rovers25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pohang SteelersExpected goals in this matchTampines Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.02

Pohang Steelers

1.55

Tampines Rovers

1.02

Pohang Steelers creates 52% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

1.50

creates per match

1.53

0.50

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Pohang Steelers

1.50

Tampines Rovers

1.53

allows per match

Pohang Steelers

0.50

Tampines Rovers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Tampines Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohang Steelers ↓

Tampines Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Pohang Steelers or draw

75%

Pohang Steelers or Tampines Rovers

75%

Draw or Tampines Rovers

50%

Winning margin

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+

25%

Tampines Rovers wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals

79%

Pohang Steelers 2+ goals

46%

Pohang Steelers 3+ goals

20%

Tampines Rovers 1+ goals

64%

Tampines Rovers 2+ goals

27%

Tampines Rovers 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)

67%

Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohang Steelers at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Tampines Rovers away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohang Steelers attack 1.50 + Tampines Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Tampines Rovers attack 1.53 + Pohang Steelers defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pohang Steelers scores more

50%

level

25%

Tampines Rovers scores more

25%

Pohang Steelers at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pohang Steelers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff