Pohang Steelers 4–2 Shandong Luneng: Result & Stats

Pohang Steelers

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Shandong Luneng

Oberdan 76'

Wanderson 68'

Jorge Teixeira 64'

Jeong Jae-Hee 30'

Bi Jinhao 90+4'

Chen Pu 33'

11/6/2024

AFC Champions League · League Stage - 4Steelyard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Pohang Steelers64%

×Draw19%

Shandong Luneng17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pohang SteelersExpected goals in this matchShandong Luneng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.14

Pohang Steelers

2.33

Shandong Luneng

1.14

Pohang Steelers creates 104% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

2.33

creates per match

1.27

1.00

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Pohang Steelers

2.33

Shandong Luneng

1.27

allows per match

Pohang Steelers

1.00

Shandong Luneng

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohang Steelers ↓

Shandong Luneng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Pohang Steelers or draw

83%

Pohang Steelers or Shandong Luneng

81%

Draw or Shandong Luneng

36%

Winning margin

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+

41%

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals

90%

Pohang Steelers 2+ goals

67%

Pohang Steelers 3+ goals

41%

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

68%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

32%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)

78%

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohang Steelers at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohang Steelers attack 2.33 + Shandong Luneng defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Shandong Luneng attack 1.27 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Pohang Steelers scores more

64%

level

19%

Shandong Luneng scores more

17%

Pohang Steelers at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Pohang Steelers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Jorge Teixeira

Pohang Steelers · F

9.3

Match Events

29'

30'

33'

41'

46'

V. Qazaishvili← Li Yuanyi

46'

Bi Jinhao← Liu Binbin

55'

Zheng Zheng

64'

Jorge Teixeira↳ Oberdan

67'

Xie Wenneng← Chen Pu

67'

Liao Lisheng← Huang Zhengyu

68'

Wanderson↳ Jorge Teixeira

69'

Yoon Suk-Ju← Kim Jong-Woo

70'

Kim Myeong-Jun← Hong Yun-Sang

76'

Oberdan↳ Wanderson

79'

Eo Jeong-Won← Shin Kwang-Hoon

79'

Kim Gyu-Hyeong← Jeong Jae-Hee

83'

Lisheng Liao

84'

Lisheng LiaoCard reviewed

86'

Kim Dong-Jin← Oberdan

90+5'

Pyeong-guk Yun

90+4'

Bi Jinhao↳ Zeca

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PohangShandong

Overview

71%Possession29%

14Total Shots11

4Corners3

12Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots11

8On Target3

4Off Target6

2Blocked2

7Inside Box6

7Outside Box5

Passing

71%Possession29%

515Total Passes200

438Accurate Passes134

85%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1