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Pohang Steelers vs Kawasaki Frontale — AFC Champions League 2018

Pohang Steelers
Pohang Steelers
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale
2/11/2025AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Stage - 7Steelyard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Pohang Steelers38%
×Draw23%
Kawasaki Frontale39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pohang Steelers
1.67
Kawasaki Frontale
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 23 away

creates per match

Pohang Steelers
2.33
Kawasaki Frontale
2.35

allows per match

Pohang Steelers
1.00
Kawasaki Frontale
1.00

finishing

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par
Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohang Steelers ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Pohang Steelers or draw
61%
Pohang Steelers or Kawasaki Frontale
77%
Draw or Kawasaki Frontale
62%

Winning margin

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+
19%
Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals
81%
Pohang Steelers 2+ goals
50%
Pohang Steelers 3+ goals
23%
Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals
81%
Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals
50%
Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)
50%
Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohang Steelers at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohang Steelers attack 2.33 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.35 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pohang Steelers scores more
38%
level
23%
Kawasaki Frontale scores more
39%

Kawasaki Frontale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pohang Steelers vs Kawasaki Frontale

Kawasaki Frontale beat Pohang Steelers 4-0 in AFC Champions League on February 11, 2025.

The match was played at Steelyard in Pohang.