Pohang Steelers 4–1 Johor Darul Takzim FC

Pohang Steelers

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Johor Darul Takzim FC

Lim Sang-Hyub 90+1' (pen)

Kwon Ki-Pyo 82'

Kang Sang-Woo 35' (pen)

B. Tashchy 27' (pen)

L. Velázquez 17'

6/28/2021

AFC Champions League · Ranking of second-placed teams - 3Rajamangala National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Pohang Steelers62%

×Draw20%

Johor Darul Takzim FC17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pohang SteelersExpected goals in this matchJohor Darul Takzim FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.04

Pohang Steelers

2.15

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.04

Pohang Steelers creates 107% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 25 away

2.33

creates per match

1.08

1.00

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Pohang Steelers

2.33

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.08

allows per match

Pohang Steelers

1.00

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohang Steelers ↓

Johor Darul Takzim FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Pohang Steelers or draw

83%

Pohang Steelers or Johor Darul Takzim FC

80%

Draw or Johor Darul Takzim FC

38%

Winning margin

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+

39%

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals

88%

Pohang Steelers 2+ goals

63%

Pohang Steelers 3+ goals

36%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals

65%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals

28%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)

78%

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohang Steelers at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohang Steelers attack 2.33 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.15

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.08 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Pohang Steelers scores more

62%

level

20%

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more

17%

Pohang Steelers at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Pohang Steelers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

79

Go Young-Joon

Pohang Steelers · M

7.7

Match Events

3'

Shane Lowry

17'

L. Velázquez

19'

Mohd Azrif Nasrulhaq

27'

B. TashchyPenalty

31'

Min-kwang JeonPenalty cancelled

32'

Mauricio

35'

Kang Sang-WooPenalty

36'

Lee Seung-Mo← M. Kvesić

38'

Afiq Fazail

45'

Sang-hyeob Lim

46'

A. Grant← Jeon Min-Gwang

68'

Mohamadou Sumareh← Afiq Fazail

69'

Kwon Ki-Pyo← B. Tashchy

79'

Matthew Davies

79'

Ramadhan Saifullah← Arif Aiman Hanapi

79'

Nazmi Faiz Mansor← Safiq Rahim

82'

Kwon Ki-Pyo↳ Go Young-Joon

86'

Guilherme← Natxo Insa

86'

Syamer Kutty Abba← Azrif Nasrulhaq Badrul Hisham

88'

Lee Ho-Jae← Go Young-Joon

90+1'

Lim Sang-HyubPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PohangJohor

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots12

2Corners5

27Fouls19

Shots

12Total Shots12

6On Target3

5Off Target8

1Blocked1

11Inside Box4

1Outside Box8

Passing

47%Possession53%

420Total Passes482

354Accurate Passes404

84%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

27Fouls19

1Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2