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Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC — K League 1 2026

Pohang Steelers
Pohang Steelers
Preview
10:30
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
9/9/2026K League 1K League 1 · Round 28Pohang Steel Yard
Big match
41%
Pohang Steelers
model favours
41%27%32%

80% of Pohang Steelers’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Pohang Steelers41%
×Draw27%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pohang Steelers
1.35
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.17

Pohang Steelers creates 15% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 117 away

creates per match

Pohang Steelers
1.33
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.23

allows per match

Pohang Steelers
1.10
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.38

finishing

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par
Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohang Steelers ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pohang Steelers or draw
68%
Pohang Steelers or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
73%
Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
59%

Winning margin

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+
19%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals
74%
Pohang Steelers 2+ goals
39%
Pohang Steelers 3+ goals
15%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals
69%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals
33%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)
56%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohang Steelers at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.10 · 156 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohang Steelers attack 1.33 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.23 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pohang Steelers scores more
41%
level
27%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more
32%

Pohang Steelers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pohang Steelers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Pohang Steelers’s matches
  • Even after scoring first, Gimcheon Sangmu FC win only 40%
  • Style contrast — Pohang Steelers play Defensively solid, Gimcheon Sangmu FC Attack-heavy
  • 33% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC fall short of their xG (2.0 vs 2.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Pohang Steelers
Defensively solid
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Attack-heavy
51%Possession57%
81%Pass accuracy85%
13.8Shots14.2
1.13xGBiggest gap2.54
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Pohang SteelersGimcheon Sangmu FC

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Pohang Steelers
2
Draws
6
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 40%
1–11–00–20–11–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Steelers
WWLW
FC
DDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Pohang Steelers host Gimcheon Sangmu FC

September 9, 2026: Pohang Steelers take on Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Pohang Steelers host Gimcheon Sangmu FC at Pohang Steel Yard.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.