Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–0 Pohang Steelers

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pohang Steelers

6/14/2025

K League 1 · Round 18Gimcheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC38%

×Draw27%

Pohang Steelers35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimcheon Sangmu FCExpected goals in this matchPohang Steelers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.25

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.30

Pohang Steelers

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 154 away

1.32

creates per match

1.32

1.19

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.32

Pohang Steelers

1.32

allows per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.19

Pohang Steelers

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimcheon Sangmu FC ↓

Pohang Steelers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gimcheon Sangmu FC or draw

65%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Pohang Steelers

73%

Draw or Pohang Steelers

62%

Winning margin

Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+

17%

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals

73%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals

37%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals

14%

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals

71%

Pohang Steelers 2+ goals

36%

Pohang Steelers 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

52%

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.19 · 119 matches

Pohang Steelers away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.28 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.32 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.30

Pohang Steelers attack 1.32 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more

38%

level

27%

Pohang Steelers scores more

35%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gimcheon Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff