Pohang Steelers 2–0 BG Pathum United

Pohang Steelers

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

BG Pathum United

11/27/2025

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Pohang Steel Yard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pohang Steelers53%

×Draw27%

BG Pathum United20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pohang SteelersExpected goals in this matchBG Pathum United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.75

Pohang Steelers

1.42

BG Pathum United

0.75

Pohang Steelers creates 89% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

0.50

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Pohang Steelers

1.50

BG Pathum United

1.00

allows per match

Pohang Steelers

0.50

BG Pathum United

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohang Steelers ↓

BG Pathum United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Pohang Steelers or draw

80%

Pohang Steelers or BG Pathum United

73%

Draw or BG Pathum United

47%

Winning margin

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+

26%

BG Pathum United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals

76%

Pohang Steelers 2+ goals

41%

Pohang Steelers 3+ goals

17%

BG Pathum United 1+ goals

53%

BG Pathum United 2+ goals

17%

BG Pathum United 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)

73%

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohang Steelers at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

BG Pathum United away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohang Steelers attack 1.50 + BG Pathum United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

BG Pathum United attack 1.00 + Pohang Steelers defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pohang Steelers scores more

53%

level

27%

BG Pathum United scores more

20%

Pohang Steelers at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pohang Steelers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff