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Pogradeci vs Turbina Cërrik — 1st Division 2019

Pogradeci
Pogradeci
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
2/29/20201st Division1st Division · Round 18Stadiumi Gjorgji Kyçyku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pogradeci61%
×Draw23%
Turbina Cërrik16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogradeci
1.80
Turbina Cërrik
0.81

Pogradeci creates 122% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 52 away

creates per match

Pogradeci
1.68
Turbina Cërrik
0.83

allows per match

Pogradeci
0.79
Turbina Cërrik
1.92

finishing

Pogradeci+0.00on par
Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogradeci ↓

Turbina Cërrik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pogradeci or draw
84%
Pogradeci or Turbina Cërrik
77%
Draw or Turbina Cërrik
39%

Winning margin

Pogradeci wins by 2+
35%
Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pogradeci 1+ goals
83%
Pogradeci 2+ goals
54%
Pogradeci 3+ goals
27%
Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
56%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
19%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pogradeci (draw refunded)
79%
Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogradeci at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.79 · 72 matches

Turbina Cërrik away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.92 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogradeci attack 1.68 + Turbina Cërrik defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.80

Turbina Cërrik attack 0.83 + Pogradeci defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Pogradeci scores more
61%
level
23%
Turbina Cërrik scores more
16%

Pogradeci at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Pogradeci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogradeci vs Turbina Cërrik

Pogradeci beat Turbina Cërrik 5-1 in 1st Division on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Gjorgji Kyçyku in Pogradec.