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Pogon Tczew W vs Rekord Bielsko-Biala W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Pogon Tczew W
Pogon Tczew W
FT
3 – 1
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
9/28/2024Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 7Stadion Miejski im. Alfonsa Guzińskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Pogon Tczew W26%
×Draw21%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogon Tczew W
1.43
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
2.09

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W creates 46% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Pogon Tczew W
1.12
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
1.21

allows per match

Pogon Tczew W
2.97
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
1.73

finishing

Pogon Tczew W+0.00on par
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Tczew W ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Pogon Tczew W or draw
47%
Pogon Tczew W or Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
79%
Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
74%

Winning margin

Pogon Tczew W wins by 2+
12%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Pogon Tczew W 1+ goals
76%
Pogon Tczew W 2+ goals
42%
Pogon Tczew W 3+ goals
17%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 1+ goals
88%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 2+ goals
62%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Pogon Tczew W (draw refunded)
33%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Tczew W at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.97 · 33 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Tczew W attack 1.12 + Rekord Bielsko-Biala W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.43

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W attack 1.21 + Pogon Tczew W defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pogon Tczew W scores more
26%
level
21%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W scores more
53%

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biala W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraliga Women: Pogon Tczew W 3–1 Rekord Bielsko-Biala W

Pogon Tczew W beat Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 3-1 in Ekstraliga Women on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Alfonsa Guzińskiego in Tczew.