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Pogon Tczew W vs Medyk Konin W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Pogon Tczew W
Pogon Tczew W
FT
3 – 3
Medyk Konin W
Medyk Konin W
6/9/2024Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 22Stadion przy ulicy Elżbiety

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Pogon Tczew W46%
×Draw21%
Medyk Konin W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogon Tczew W
2.10
Medyk Konin W
1.76

Pogon Tczew W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 11 away

creates per match

Pogon Tczew W
1.12
Medyk Konin W
0.55

allows per match

Pogon Tczew W
2.97
Medyk Konin W
3.09

finishing

Pogon Tczew W+0.00on par
Medyk Konin W+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Tczew W ↓

Medyk Konin W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Pogon Tczew W or draw
67%
Pogon Tczew W or Medyk Konin W
79%
Draw or Medyk Konin W
54%

Winning margin

Pogon Tczew W wins by 2+
26%
Medyk Konin W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pogon Tczew W 1+ goals
88%
Pogon Tczew W 2+ goals
62%
Pogon Tczew W 3+ goals
35%
Medyk Konin W 1+ goals
83%
Medyk Konin W 2+ goals
52%
Medyk Konin W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Pogon Tczew W (draw refunded)
58%
Medyk Konin W (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Tczew W at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.97 · 33 matches

Medyk Konin W away — creates 0.55, concedes 3.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Tczew W attack 1.12 + Medyk Konin W defence 3.09 → ÷2 → 2.10

Medyk Konin W attack 0.55 + Pogon Tczew W defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pogon Tczew W scores more
46%
level
21%
Medyk Konin W scores more
33%

Pogon Tczew W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pogon Tczew W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraliga Women: Pogon Tczew W 3–3 Medyk Konin W

Pogon Tczew W and Medyk Konin W drew 3-3 in Ekstraliga Women on June 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion przy ulicy Elżbiety in Tczew.