Pogon Szczecin W 1–2 Slask Wroclaw W

Pogon Szczecin W

FT

1 – 2

Slask Wroclaw W

3/16/2024

Ekstraliga Women · Round 14Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Pogon Szczecin W58%

×Draw20%

Slask Wroclaw W23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogon Szczecin WExpected goals in this matchSlask Wroclaw W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.42

Pogon Szczecin W

2.35

Slask Wroclaw W

1.42

Pogon Szczecin W creates 65% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

2.88

creates per match

1.91

0.94

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Pogon Szczecin W

2.88

Slask Wroclaw W

1.91

allows per match

Pogon Szczecin W

0.94

Slask Wroclaw W

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogon Szczecin W+0.00on par

Slask Wroclaw W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Szczecin W ↓

Slask Wroclaw W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Pogon Szczecin W or draw

77%

Pogon Szczecin W or Slask Wroclaw W

80%

Draw or Slask Wroclaw W

42%

Winning margin

Pogon Szczecin W wins by 2+

36%

Slask Wroclaw W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Pogon Szczecin W 1+ goals

90%

Pogon Szczecin W 2+ goals

68%

Pogon Szczecin W 3+ goals

41%

Slask Wroclaw W 1+ goals

76%

Slask Wroclaw W 2+ goals

41%

Slask Wroclaw W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Pogon Szczecin W (draw refunded)

72%

Slask Wroclaw W (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Szczecin W at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Slask Wroclaw W away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Szczecin W attack 2.88 + Slask Wroclaw W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.35

Slask Wroclaw W attack 1.91 + Pogon Szczecin W defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pogon Szczecin W scores more

58%

level

20%

Slask Wroclaw W scores more

23%

Pogon Szczecin W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff