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Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin — Ekstraklasa 2018

Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin
2/1/2025EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 19Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Pogon Szczecin51%
×Draw22%
Zaglebie Lubin27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogon Szczecin
1.90
Zaglebie Lubin
1.32

Pogon Szczecin creates 44% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Pogon Szczecin
2.17
Zaglebie Lubin
1.14

allows per match

Pogon Szczecin
1.50
Zaglebie Lubin
1.62

finishing

Pogon Szczecin-0.09on par
Zaglebie Lubin-0.35scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Szczecin ↓

Zaglebie Lubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Pogon Szczecin or draw
73%
Pogon Szczecin or Zaglebie Lubin
78%
Draw or Zaglebie Lubin
49%

Winning margin

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+
29%
Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals
85%
Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals
56%
Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals
29%
Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals
73%
Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals
38%
Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)
66%
Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Szczecin at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 13 matches

Zaglebie Lubin away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Szczecin attack 2.17 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.90

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.14 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pogon Szczecin scores more
51%
level
22%
Zaglebie Lubin scores more
27%

Pogon Szczecin at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Zaglebie Lubin

Pogon Szczecin beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Szczecin.