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Pogoń Szczecin U19 vs Raków Częstochowa U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Pogoń Szczecin U19
Pogoń Szczecin U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Raków Częstochowa U19
Raków Częstochowa U19
9/30/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Pogoń Szczecin U1944%
×Draw21%
Raków Częstochowa U1935%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Szczecin U19
2.02
Raków Częstochowa U19
1.80

Pogoń Szczecin U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 22 away

creates per match

Pogoń Szczecin U19
2.21
Raków Częstochowa U19
1.64

allows per match

Pogoń Szczecin U19
1.97
Raków Częstochowa U19
1.82

finishing

Pogoń Szczecin U19+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Szczecin U19 ↓

Raków Częstochowa U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Pogoń Szczecin U19 or draw
65%
Pogoń Szczecin U19 or Raków Częstochowa U19
79%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa U19
56%

Winning margin

Pogoń Szczecin U19 wins by 2+
24%
Raków Częstochowa U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pogoń Szczecin U19 1+ goals
87%
Pogoń Szczecin U19 2+ goals
60%
Pogoń Szczecin U19 3+ goals
33%
Raków Częstochowa U19 1+ goals
83%
Raków Częstochowa U19 2+ goals
54%
Raków Częstochowa U19 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Szczecin U19 (draw refunded)
55%
Raków Częstochowa U19 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Szczecin U19 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

Raków Częstochowa U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Szczecin U19 attack 2.21 + Raków Częstochowa U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.02

Raków Częstochowa U19 attack 1.64 + Pogoń Szczecin U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pogoń Szczecin U19 scores more
44%
level
21%
Raków Częstochowa U19 scores more
35%

Pogoń Szczecin U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogoń Szczecin U19 vs Raków Częstochowa U19

Pogoń Szczecin U19 beat Raków Częstochowa U19 2-1 in Central Youth League on September 30, 2023.