Pogoń Szczecin U19 5–3 Legia Warszawa U19

Pogoń Szczecin U19

FT

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Legia Warszawa U19

8/17/2024

Central Youth League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Pogoń Szczecin U1934%

×Draw20%

Legia Warszawa U1946%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń Szczecin U19Expected goals in this matchLegia Warszawa U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

2.27

Pogoń Szczecin U19

1.95

Legia Warszawa U19

2.27

Legia Warszawa U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 52 away

2.21

creates per match

2.58

1.97

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Pogoń Szczecin U19

2.21

Legia Warszawa U19

2.58

allows per match

Pogoń Szczecin U19

1.97

Legia Warszawa U19

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Szczecin U19+0.00on par

Legia Warszawa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Szczecin U19 ↓

Legia Warszawa U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Pogoń Szczecin U19 or draw

54%

Pogoń Szczecin U19 or Legia Warszawa U19

80%

Draw or Legia Warszawa U19

66%

Winning margin

Pogoń Szczecin U19 wins by 2+

18%

Legia Warszawa U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Pogoń Szczecin U19 1+ goals

86%

Pogoń Szczecin U19 2+ goals

58%

Pogoń Szczecin U19 3+ goals

31%

Legia Warszawa U19 1+ goals

90%

Legia Warszawa U19 2+ goals

66%

Legia Warszawa U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Szczecin U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Legia Warszawa U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Szczecin U19 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

Legia Warszawa U19 away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.69 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Szczecin U19 attack 2.21 + Legia Warszawa U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.95

Legia Warszawa U19 attack 2.58 + Pogoń Szczecin U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pogoń Szczecin U19 scores more

34%

level

20%

Legia Warszawa U19 scores more

46%

Legia Warszawa U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Legia Warszawa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff