Pogoń Szczecin U19 4–2 Jagiellonia U19

Pogoń Szczecin U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Jagiellonia U19

11/9/2024

Central Youth League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Pogoń Szczecin U1945%

×Draw21%

Jagiellonia U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń Szczecin U19Expected goals in this matchJagiellonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.80

Pogoń Szczecin U19

2.10

Jagiellonia U19

1.80

Pogoń Szczecin U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 53 away

2.21

creates per match

1.64

1.97

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Pogoń Szczecin U19

2.21

Jagiellonia U19

1.64

allows per match

Pogoń Szczecin U19

1.97

Jagiellonia U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Szczecin U19+0.00on par

Jagiellonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Szczecin U19 ↓

Jagiellonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Pogoń Szczecin U19 or draw

66%

Pogoń Szczecin U19 or Jagiellonia U19

79%

Draw or Jagiellonia U19

55%

Winning margin

Pogoń Szczecin U19 wins by 2+

26%

Jagiellonia U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Pogoń Szczecin U19 1+ goals

88%

Pogoń Szczecin U19 2+ goals

62%

Pogoń Szczecin U19 3+ goals

35%

Jagiellonia U19 1+ goals

83%

Jagiellonia U19 2+ goals

54%

Jagiellonia U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Szczecin U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Jagiellonia U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Szczecin U19 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

Jagiellonia U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.00 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Szczecin U19 attack 2.21 + Jagiellonia U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Jagiellonia U19 attack 1.64 + Pogoń Szczecin U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pogoń Szczecin U19 scores more

45%

level

21%

Jagiellonia U19 scores more

34%

Pogoń Szczecin U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff