Pogoń Szczecin U18 0–1 Raków Częstochowa U18

Pogoń Szczecin U18

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Raków Częstochowa U18

10/1/2022

Central Youth League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Pogoń Szczecin U1855%

×Draw20%

Raków Częstochowa U1825%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń Szczecin U18Expected goals in this matchRaków Częstochowa U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.55

Pogoń Szczecin U18

2.34

Raków Częstochowa U18

1.55

Pogoń Szczecin U18 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 23 away

2.59

creates per match

1.48

1.62

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Pogoń Szczecin U18

2.59

Raków Częstochowa U18

1.48

allows per match

Pogoń Szczecin U18

1.62

Raków Częstochowa U18

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Szczecin U18+0.00on par

Raków Częstochowa U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Szczecin U18 ↓

Raków Częstochowa U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Pogoń Szczecin U18 or draw

75%

Pogoń Szczecin U18 or Raków Częstochowa U18

80%

Draw or Raków Częstochowa U18

45%

Winning margin

Pogoń Szczecin U18 wins by 2+

34%

Raków Częstochowa U18 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Pogoń Szczecin U18 1+ goals

90%

Pogoń Szczecin U18 2+ goals

67%

Pogoń Szczecin U18 3+ goals

41%

Raków Częstochowa U18 1+ goals

79%

Raków Częstochowa U18 2+ goals

46%

Raków Częstochowa U18 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Szczecin U18 (draw refunded)

69%

Raków Częstochowa U18 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Szczecin U18 at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

Raków Częstochowa U18 away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Szczecin U18 attack 2.59 + Raków Częstochowa U18 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.34

Raków Częstochowa U18 attack 1.48 + Pogoń Szczecin U18 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pogoń Szczecin U18 scores more

55%

level

20%

Raków Częstochowa U18 scores more

25%

Pogoń Szczecin U18 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff