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Pogoń Szczecin U18 vs Polonia Warszawa U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Pogoń Szczecin U18
Pogoń Szczecin U18
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Polonia Warszawa U18
Polonia Warszawa U18
5/7/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Pogoń Szczecin U1847%
×Draw21%
Polonia Warszawa U1833%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Szczecin U18
2.16
Polonia Warszawa U18
1.79

Pogoń Szczecin U18 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 22 away

creates per match

Pogoń Szczecin U18
2.59
Polonia Warszawa U18
1.95

allows per match

Pogoń Szczecin U18
1.62
Polonia Warszawa U18
1.73

finishing

Pogoń Szczecin U18+0.00on par
Polonia Warszawa U18+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Szczecin U18 ↓

Polonia Warszawa U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Pogoń Szczecin U18 or draw
67%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 or Polonia Warszawa U18
79%
Draw or Polonia Warszawa U18
53%

Winning margin

Pogoń Szczecin U18 wins by 2+
27%
Polonia Warszawa U18 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pogoń Szczecin U18 1+ goals
88%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 2+ goals
63%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 3+ goals
36%
Polonia Warszawa U18 1+ goals
83%
Polonia Warszawa U18 2+ goals
53%
Polonia Warszawa U18 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Szczecin U18 (draw refunded)
59%
Polonia Warszawa U18 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Szczecin U18 at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

Polonia Warszawa U18 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Szczecin U18 attack 2.59 + Polonia Warszawa U18 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.16

Polonia Warszawa U18 attack 1.95 + Pogoń Szczecin U18 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pogoń Szczecin U18 scores more
47%
level
21%
Polonia Warszawa U18 scores more
33%

Pogoń Szczecin U18 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Pogoń Szczecin U18 4–1 Polonia Warszawa U18

Pogoń Szczecin U18 beat Polonia Warszawa U18 4-1 in Central Youth League on May 7, 2022.