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Pogoń Szczecin U18 vs Górnik Zabrze U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Pogoń Szczecin U18
Pogoń Szczecin U18
FT
1 – 1
Górnik Zabrze U18
Górnik Zabrze U18
11/20/2021Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pogoń Szczecin U1848%
×Draw22%
Górnik Zabrze U1831%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Szczecin U18
2.00
Górnik Zabrze U18
1.58

Pogoń Szczecin U18 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

creates per match

Pogoń Szczecin U18
2.59
Górnik Zabrze U18
1.54

allows per match

Pogoń Szczecin U18
1.62
Górnik Zabrze U18
1.41

finishing

Pogoń Szczecin U18+0.00on par
Górnik Zabrze U18+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Szczecin U18 ↓

Górnik Zabrze U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Pogoń Szczecin U18 or draw
69%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 or Górnik Zabrze U18
78%
Draw or Górnik Zabrze U18
52%

Winning margin

Pogoń Szczecin U18 wins by 2+
27%
Górnik Zabrze U18 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pogoń Szczecin U18 1+ goals
86%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 2+ goals
59%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 3+ goals
32%
Górnik Zabrze U18 1+ goals
79%
Górnik Zabrze U18 2+ goals
47%
Górnik Zabrze U18 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Szczecin U18 (draw refunded)
61%
Górnik Zabrze U18 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Szczecin U18 at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

Górnik Zabrze U18 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Szczecin U18 attack 2.59 + Górnik Zabrze U18 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 2.00

Górnik Zabrze U18 attack 1.54 + Pogoń Szczecin U18 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pogoń Szczecin U18 scores more
48%
level
22%
Górnik Zabrze U18 scores more
31%

Pogoń Szczecin U18 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogoń Szczecin U18 vs Górnik Zabrze U18

Pogoń Szczecin U18 and Górnik Zabrze U18 drew 1-1 in Central Youth League on November 20, 2021.