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Pogoń Szczecin II vs Unia Swarzędz — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Pogoń Szczecin II
Pogoń Szczecin II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Unia Swarzędz
Unia Swarzędz
11/19/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Pogoń Szczecin II49%
×Draw22%
Unia Swarzędz29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Szczecin II
1.92
Unia Swarzędz
1.43

Pogoń Szczecin II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 84 away

creates per match

Pogoń Szczecin II
2.32
Unia Swarzędz
1.51

allows per match

Pogoń Szczecin II
1.34
Unia Swarzędz
1.52

finishing

Pogoń Szczecin II+0.00on par
Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Szczecin II ↓

Unia Swarzędz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Pogoń Szczecin II or draw
71%
Pogoń Szczecin II or Unia Swarzędz
78%
Draw or Unia Swarzędz
51%

Winning margin

Pogoń Szczecin II wins by 2+
28%
Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pogoń Szczecin II 1+ goals
85%
Pogoń Szczecin II 2+ goals
57%
Pogoń Szczecin II 3+ goals
30%
Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals
76%
Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals
42%
Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Szczecin II (draw refunded)
63%
Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Szczecin II at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

Unia Swarzędz away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.52 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Szczecin II attack 2.32 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.92

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.51 + Pogoń Szczecin II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pogoń Szczecin II scores more
49%
level
22%
Unia Swarzędz scores more
29%

Pogoń Szczecin II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogoń Szczecin II vs Unia Swarzędz

Pogoń Szczecin II beat Unia Swarzędz 3-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Szczecin.