Pogoń Szczecin II 3–0 Solec K.: Result & Stats

Pogoń Szczecin II

FT

3 – 0

Solec K.

11/6/2022

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pogoń Szczecin II59%

×Draw20%

Solec K.21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń Szczecin IIExpected goals in this matchSolec K.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.26

Pogoń Szczecin II

2.22

Solec K.

1.26

Pogoń Szczecin II creates 76% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 34 away

2.32

creates per match

1.18

1.34

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Pogoń Szczecin II

2.32

Solec K.

1.18

allows per match

Pogoń Szczecin II

1.34

Solec K.

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Szczecin II+0.00on par

Solec K.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Szczecin II ↓

Solec K. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Pogoń Szczecin II or draw

79%

Pogoń Szczecin II or Solec K.

80%

Draw or Solec K.

41%

Winning margin

Pogoń Szczecin II wins by 2+

37%

Solec K. wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Pogoń Szczecin II 1+ goals

89%

Pogoń Szczecin II 2+ goals

65%

Pogoń Szczecin II 3+ goals

38%

Solec K. 1+ goals

72%

Solec K. 2+ goals

36%

Solec K. 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Szczecin II (draw refunded)

74%

Solec K. (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Szczecin II at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

Solec K. away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Szczecin II attack 2.32 + Solec K. defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.22

Solec K. attack 1.18 + Pogoń Szczecin II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Pogoń Szczecin II scores more

59%

level

20%

Solec K. scores more

21%

Pogoń Szczecin II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff