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Pogoń Szczecin II vs Pomorzanin Toruń — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Pogoń Szczecin II
Pogoń Szczecin II
FT
4 – 1
Pomorzanin Toruń
Pomorzanin Toruń
8/23/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pogoń Szczecin II52%
×Draw22%
Pomorzanin Toruń25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Szczecin II
1.90
Pomorzanin Toruń
1.26

Pogoń Szczecin II creates 51% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 17 away

creates per match

Pogoń Szczecin II
2.32
Pomorzanin Toruń
1.18

allows per match

Pogoń Szczecin II
1.34
Pomorzanin Toruń
1.47

finishing

Pogoń Szczecin II+0.00on par
Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Szczecin II ↓

Pomorzanin Toruń →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pogoń Szczecin II or draw
75%
Pogoń Szczecin II or Pomorzanin Toruń
78%
Draw or Pomorzanin Toruń
48%

Winning margin

Pogoń Szczecin II wins by 2+
30%
Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pogoń Szczecin II 1+ goals
85%
Pogoń Szczecin II 2+ goals
56%
Pogoń Szczecin II 3+ goals
29%
Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals
72%
Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals
36%
Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Szczecin II (draw refunded)
67%
Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Szczecin II at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

Pomorzanin Toruń away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Szczecin II attack 2.32 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.90

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.18 + Pogoń Szczecin II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pogoń Szczecin II scores more
52%
level
22%
Pomorzanin Toruń scores more
25%

Pogoń Szczecin II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Pogoń Szczecin II 4–1 Pomorzanin Toruń

Pogoń Szczecin II beat Pomorzanin Toruń 4-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Szczecin.