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Pogoń Szczecin II vs Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Pogoń Szczecin II
Pogoń Szczecin II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
8/3/2025III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group II - 1Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Pogoń Szczecin II47%
×Draw23%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Szczecin II
1.84
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.45

Pogoń Szczecin II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 85 away

creates per match

Pogoń Szczecin II
2.32
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.55

allows per match

Pogoń Szczecin II
1.34
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.36

finishing

Pogoń Szczecin II+0.00on par
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Szczecin II ↓

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Pogoń Szczecin II or draw
69%
Pogoń Szczecin II or Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
77%
Draw or Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
53%

Winning margin

Pogoń Szczecin II wins by 2+
26%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pogoń Szczecin II 1+ goals
84%
Pogoń Szczecin II 2+ goals
55%
Pogoń Szczecin II 3+ goals
28%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 1+ goals
77%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 2+ goals
42%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Szczecin II (draw refunded)
60%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Szczecin II at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.36 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Szczecin II attack 2.32 + Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.84

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce attack 1.55 + Pogoń Szczecin II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pogoń Szczecin II scores more
47%
level
23%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce scores more
31%

Pogoń Szczecin II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Pogoń Szczecin II 4–1 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

Pogoń Szczecin II beat Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 4-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Szczecin.