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Pogoń Szczecin II vs Mieszko Gniezno — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Pogoń Szczecin II
Pogoń Szczecin II
FT
3 – 0
Mieszko Gniezno
Mieszko Gniezno
9/27/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pogoń Szczecin II82%
×Draw11%
Mieszko Gniezno7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Szczecin II
3.28
Mieszko Gniezno
0.88

Pogoń Szczecin II creates 273% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 17 away

creates per match

Pogoń Szczecin II
2.32
Mieszko Gniezno
0.41

allows per match

Pogoń Szczecin II
1.34
Mieszko Gniezno
4.24

finishing

Pogoń Szczecin II+0.00on par
Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Szczecin II ↓

Mieszko Gniezno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Pogoń Szczecin II or draw
93%
Pogoń Szczecin II or Mieszko Gniezno
89%
Draw or Mieszko Gniezno
18%

Winning margin

Pogoń Szczecin II wins by 2+
64%
Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Pogoń Szczecin II 1+ goals
96%
Pogoń Szczecin II 2+ goals
83%
Pogoń Szczecin II 3+ goals
62%
Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals
59%
Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals
22%
Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Szczecin II (draw refunded)
92%
Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Szczecin II at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

Mieszko Gniezno away — creates 0.41, concedes 4.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Szczecin II attack 2.32 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 3.28

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.41 + Pogoń Szczecin II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Pogoń Szczecin II scores more
82%
level
11%
Mieszko Gniezno scores more
7%

Pogoń Szczecin II at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogoń Szczecin II vs Mieszko Gniezno

Pogoń Szczecin II beat Mieszko Gniezno 3-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Szczecin.