Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1–1 Wiązownica: Result & Stats

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów

FT

1 – 1

Wiązownica

9/28/2024

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów50%

×Draw22%

Wiązownica28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń-Sokół LubaczówExpected goals in this matchWiązownica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.41

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów

1.94

Wiązownica

1.41

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów creates 38% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 70 away

1.71

creates per match

1.26

1.56

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów

1.71

Wiązownica

1.26

allows per match

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów

1.56

Wiązownica

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów+0.00on par

Wiązownica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów ↓

Wiązownica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów or draw

72%

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów or Wiązownica

78%

Draw or Wiązownica

50%

Winning margin

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów wins by 2+

28%

Wiązownica wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1+ goals

86%

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 2+ goals

58%

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 3+ goals

30%

Wiązownica 1+ goals

76%

Wiązownica 2+ goals

41%

Wiązownica 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów (draw refunded)

64%

Wiązownica (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

Wiązownica away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów attack 1.71 + Wiązownica defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.94

Wiązownica attack 1.26 + Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów scores more

50%

level

22%

Wiązownica scores more

28%

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff