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Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów vs Lewart — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lewart
Lewart
4/19/2025III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 26Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów50%
×Draw23%
Lewart27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
1.80
Lewart
1.25

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów creates 44% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 37 away

creates per match

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
1.71
Lewart
0.95

allows per match

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
1.56
Lewart
1.89

finishing

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów+0.00on par
Lewart+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów ↓

Lewart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów or draw
73%
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów or Lewart
77%
Draw or Lewart
50%

Winning margin

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów wins by 2+
28%
Lewart wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1+ goals
83%
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 2+ goals
54%
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 3+ goals
27%
Lewart 1+ goals
71%
Lewart 2+ goals
36%
Lewart 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów (draw refunded)
65%
Lewart (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

Lewart away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów attack 1.71 + Lewart defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.80

Lewart attack 0.95 + Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów scores more
50%
level
23%
Lewart scores more
27%

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 2–2 Lewart

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów and Lewart drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Lubaczów.