Pogoń Siedlce 1–3 Wisla Plock: Result & Stats

Pogoń Siedlce

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Wisla Plock

M. Flis 84'

Amin Al Hamawi 87', 74'

Iban Salvador 45+2'

2/28/2025

I Liga · Round 22Stadion ROSRRiT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pogoń Siedlce32%

×Draw27%

Wisla Plock41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń SiedlceExpected goals in this matchWisla Plock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.34

Pogoń Siedlce

1.15

Wisla Plock

1.34

Wisla Plock creates 17% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

1.10

creates per match

1.40

1.29

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Pogoń Siedlce

1.10

Wisla Plock

1.40

allows per match

Pogoń Siedlce

1.29

Wisla Plock

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Siedlce ↓

Wisla Plock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pogoń Siedlce or draw

59%

Pogoń Siedlce or Wisla Plock

73%

Draw or Wisla Plock

68%

Winning margin

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+

13%

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals

68%

Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals

32%

Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals

11%

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

74%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

39%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)

44%

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Siedlce at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Wisla Plock away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.10 + Wisla Plock defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Wisla Plock attack 1.40 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pogoń Siedlce scores more

32%

level

27%

Wisla Plock scores more

41%

Wisla Plock at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

M. Flis

45+2'

Iban Salvador

66'

K. Danielewicz← L. Hrnčiar

66'

M. Bykowski← N. Zielonka

66'

T. Milašius← C. Demianiuk

72'

Amin Al Hamawi← Iban Salvador

74'

Amin Al Hamawi

76'

D. Pacheco

78'

M. Majewski← K. Miś

83'

K. Pomorski← Dani Pacheco

83'

P. Krawczyk← Jime

84'

M. Flis

87'

Amin Al Hamawi

90+2'

P. Pyrdoł← E. Dzięcioł

90'

F. Hiszpański← K. Čustović

90'

F. Lodziński← M. Brzozowski

Pogoń

Wisla

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Nocoń

66'▲K. Danielewicz←▼L. Hrnčiar

66'▲M. Bykowski←▼N. Zielonka

66'▲T. Milašius←▼C. Demianiuk

78'▲M. Majewski←▼K. Miś

90+2'▲P. Pyrdoł←▼E. Dzięcioł

Pogoń Siedlce substitutes

DanielewiczBykowskiMilašiusMajewskiPyrdołBurkaPikPruchniewskiGryglak

Manager: M. Misiura

72'▲Amin Al Hamawi←▼Iban Salvador

83'▲K. Pomorski←▼Dani Pacheco

83'▲P. Krawczyk←▼Jime

90'▲F. Hiszpański←▼K. Čustović

90'▲F. Lodziński←▼M. Brzozowski

Wisla Plock substitutes

HamawiPomorskiKrawczykHiszpańskiLodzińskiKuchkoBielkaPruszkowski

Match Recap: Pogoń Siedlce vs Wisla Plock

Wisla Plock beat Pogoń Siedlce 3-1 in I Liga on February 28, 2025.

Goals: Iban Salvador (45+2'), Amin Al Hamawi (74', 87'), M. Flis (84').

The match was played at Stadion ROSRRiT in Siedlce.

Pogoń Siedlce vs Wisla Plock — I Liga 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Pogoń Siedlce vs Wisla Plock