Pogoń Siedlce 1–2 Górnik Polkowice: Result & Stats

Pogoń Siedlce

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Górnik Polkowice

K. Danielewicz 44'

M. Kołoczek 45' (OG)

M. Szuszkiewicz 17'

4/10/2021

II Liga - East · Round 26Stadion ROSRRiT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Pogoń Siedlce37%

×Draw25%

Górnik Polkowice38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń SiedlceExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.41

Pogoń Siedlce

1.39

Górnik Polkowice

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 53 away

1.48

creates per match

1.40

1.42

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Pogoń Siedlce

1.48

Górnik Polkowice

1.40

allows per match

Pogoń Siedlce

1.42

Górnik Polkowice

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Siedlce ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pogoń Siedlce or draw

62%

Pogoń Siedlce or Górnik Polkowice

75%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

63%

Winning margin

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+

17%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals

75%

Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals

40%

Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals

16%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

76%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

41%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)

49%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Siedlce at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.48 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.39

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.40 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pogoń Siedlce scores more

37%

level

25%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

38%

Górnik Polkowice at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

M. Szuszkiewicz

37'

M. Koloczek

39'

M. Piotrowski

44'

K. Danielewicz

45'

M. KołoczekOwn goal

46'

Marcin Kozłowski II← M. Piotrowski

63'

D. Radziemski

68'

K. Danielewicz

68'

P. Pierzchała← F. Wróblewski

78'

J. Ratajczak← R. Karmelita

84'

J. Tadrowski

84'

M. Szuszkiewicz

89'

B. Brodziński← K. Miś

89'

M. Opałacz← M. Szuszkiewicz

Pogoń

Górnik

▼

⚽

▼

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: B. Tarachulski

46'▲Marcin Kozłowski II←▼M. Piotrowski

68'▲P. Pierzchała←▼F. Wróblewski

89'▲B. Brodziński←▼K. Miś

Pogoń Siedlce substitutes

IIPierzchałaBrodziński

Manager: J. Niedźwiedź

78'▲J. Ratajczak←▼R. Karmelita

89'▲M. Opałacz←▼M. Szuszkiewicz

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

RatajczakOpałacz

Match Recap: Pogoń Siedlce vs Górnik Polkowice

Górnik Polkowice beat Pogoń Siedlce 2-1 in II Liga - East on April 10, 2021.

Goals: M. Szuszkiewicz (17'), K. Danielewicz (44'), M. Kołoczek (45' o.g.).

The match was played at Stadion ROSRRiT in Siedlce.

Pogoń Siedlce vs Górnik Polkowice — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Pogoń Siedlce vs Górnik Polkowice