Pogoń Siedlce 3–0 Garbarnia Kraków: Result & Stats

Pogoń Siedlce

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Garbarnia Kraków

2/24/2023

II Liga - East · Round 20Stadion ROSRRiT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Pogoń Siedlce40%

×Draw25%

Garbarnia Kraków35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń SiedlceExpected goals in this matchGarbarnia Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.35

Pogoń Siedlce

1.48

Garbarnia Kraków

1.35

Pogoń Siedlce creates 10% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 68 away

1.48

creates per match

1.28

1.42

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Pogoń Siedlce

1.48

Garbarnia Kraków

1.28

allows per match

Pogoń Siedlce

1.42

Garbarnia Kraków

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Siedlce ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Pogoń Siedlce or draw

65%

Pogoń Siedlce or Garbarnia Kraków

75%

Draw or Garbarnia Kraków

60%

Winning margin

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+

19%

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals

77%

Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals

43%

Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals

19%

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

74%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

39%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)

54%

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Siedlce at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.48 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pogoń Siedlce scores more

40%

level

25%

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

35%

Pogoń Siedlce at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pogoń Siedlce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff