Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 2–0 Flota Świnoujście

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Flota Świnoujście

6/7/2025

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Stadion Miejsko-Gminny w Nowych Skalmierzycach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce38%

×Draw25%

Flota Świnoujście36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń Nowe SkalmierzyceExpected goals in this matchFlota Świnoujście

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.38

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

1.42

Flota Świnoujście

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 68 away

1.27

creates per match

1.38

1.39

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

1.27

Flota Świnoujście

1.38

allows per match

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

1.39

Flota Świnoujście

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce+0.00on par

Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce ↓

Flota Świnoujście →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce or draw

64%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce or Flota Świnoujście

75%

Draw or Flota Świnoujście

62%

Winning margin

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce wins by 2+

18%

Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 1+ goals

76%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 2+ goals

41%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 3+ goals

17%

Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals

75%

Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals

40%

Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce (draw refunded)

51%

Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.39 · 83 matches

Flota Świnoujście away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce attack 1.27 + Flota Świnoujście defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.42

Flota Świnoujście attack 1.38 + Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce scores more

38%

level

25%

Flota Świnoujście scores more

36%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff