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Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — II Liga - East 2019

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
4/12/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 26Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki45%
×Draw25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.55
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.20

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 29% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.55
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.06

allows per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.33
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.55

finishing

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw
70%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
75%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
55%

Winning margin

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
23%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
79%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
46%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
20%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
70%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
34%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
61%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 1.55 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.55

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.06 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
45%
level
25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
30%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3–2 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3-2 in II Liga - East on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Grodzisk Mazowiecki.