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Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Wisła Puławy — II Liga - East 2019

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
8/24/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 6Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki44%
×Draw24%
Wisła Puławy32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.69
Wisła Puławy
1.41

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 20% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 70 away

creates per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.55
Wisła Puławy
1.49

allows per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.33
Wisła Puławy
1.83

finishing

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw
68%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Wisła Puławy
76%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
56%

Winning margin

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
23%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
82%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
50%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
24%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
76%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
41%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
58%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.83 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 1.55 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.69

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
44%
level
24%
Wisła Puławy scores more
32%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Wisła Puławy

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki beat Wisła Puławy 2-1 in II Liga - East on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Grodzisk Mazowiecki.