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Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Swit — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Swit
Swit
5/25/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki60%
×Draw20%
Swit20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.18
Swit
1.18

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 85% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 103 away

creates per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.75
Swit
1.55

allows per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.81
Swit
1.61

finishing

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par
Swit+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki ↓

Swit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw
80%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Swit
80%
Draw or Swit
40%

Winning margin

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
37%
Swit wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
89%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
64%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
37%
Swit 1+ goals
69%
Swit 2+ goals
33%
Swit 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
75%
Swit (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.81 · 52 matches

Swit away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 2.75 + Swit defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.18

Swit attack 1.55 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
60%
level
20%
Swit scores more
20%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 4–0 Swit

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki beat Swit 4-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Grodzisk Mazowiecki.