Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3–2 Lechia T. Mazowiecki

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

5/19/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki62%

×Draw19%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiExpected goals in this matchLechia T. Mazowiecki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.22

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

2.33

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

1.22

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 91% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 102 away

2.75

creates per match

1.63

0.81

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

2.75

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

1.63

allows per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

0.81

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Lechia T. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki ↓

Lechia T. Mazowiecki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw

81%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Lechia T. Mazowiecki

81%

Draw or Lechia T. Mazowiecki

38%

Winning margin

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+

40%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals

90%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals

67%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals

41%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1+ goals

70%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2+ goals

34%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)

77%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.81 · 52 matches

Lechia T. Mazowiecki away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.91 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 2.75 + Lechia T. Mazowiecki defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.33

Lechia T. Mazowiecki attack 1.63 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more

62%

level

19%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki scores more

19%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff