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Podvinci vs Zreče — 3. SNL - East 2020

Podvinci
Podvinci
FT
2 – 4
Zreče
Zreče
8/29/20203. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 2Stadion Podvinci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Podvinci59%
×Draw20%
Zreče20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podvinci
2.15
Zreče
1.19

Podvinci creates 81% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

creates per match

Podvinci
1.29
Zreče
1.00

allows per match

Podvinci
1.38
Zreče
3.00

finishing

Podvinci+0.00on par
Zreče+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podvinci ↓

Zreče →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Podvinci or draw
80%
Podvinci or Zreče
80%
Draw or Zreče
41%

Winning margin

Podvinci wins by 2+
36%
Zreče wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Podvinci 1+ goals
88%
Podvinci 2+ goals
63%
Podvinci 3+ goals
36%
Zreče 1+ goals
70%
Zreče 2+ goals
33%
Zreče 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Podvinci (draw refunded)
74%
Zreče (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podvinci at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

Zreče away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podvinci attack 1.29 + Zreče defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Zreče attack 1.00 + Podvinci defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Podvinci scores more
59%
level
20%
Zreče scores more
20%

Podvinci at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Podvinci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. SNL - East: Podvinci 2–4 Zreče

Zreče beat Podvinci 4-2 in 3. SNL - East on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Podvinci in Podvici.