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Podvinci vs Šampion Celje — 3. SNL - East 2020

Podvinci
Podvinci
FT
1 – 2
Šampion Celje
Šampion Celje
10/4/20203. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 7Stadion Podvinci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Podvinci47%
×Draw23%
Šampion Celje30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podvinci
1.81
Šampion Celje
1.41

Podvinci creates 28% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 9 away

creates per match

Podvinci
1.29
Šampion Celje
1.44

allows per match

Podvinci
1.38
Šampion Celje
2.33

finishing

Podvinci+0.00on par
Šampion Celje+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podvinci ↓

Šampion Celje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Podvinci or draw
70%
Podvinci or Šampion Celje
77%
Draw or Šampion Celje
53%

Winning margin

Podvinci wins by 2+
26%
Šampion Celje wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Podvinci 1+ goals
84%
Podvinci 2+ goals
54%
Podvinci 3+ goals
27%
Šampion Celje 1+ goals
76%
Šampion Celje 2+ goals
41%
Šampion Celje 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Podvinci (draw refunded)
61%
Šampion Celje (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podvinci at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

Šampion Celje away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podvinci attack 1.29 + Šampion Celje defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

Šampion Celje attack 1.44 + Podvinci defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Podvinci scores more
47%
level
23%
Šampion Celje scores more
30%

Podvinci at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Podvinci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podvinci vs Šampion Celje

Šampion Celje beat Podvinci 2-1 in 3. SNL - East on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Podvinci in Podvici.