Podvinci 1–2 Brežice: Result & Stats

Podvinci

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Brežice

10/25/2025

3. SNL - East · East - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Podvinci34%

×Draw25%

Brežice41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PodvinciExpected goals in this matchBrežice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.48

Podvinci

1.31

Brežice

1.48

Brežice creates 13% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

1.29

creates per match

1.58

1.38

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Podvinci

1.29

Brežice

1.58

allows per match

Podvinci

1.38

Brežice

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podvinci+0.00on par

Brežice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podvinci ↓

Brežice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Podvinci or draw

59%

Podvinci or Brežice

75%

Draw or Brežice

66%

Winning margin

Podvinci wins by 2+

15%

Brežice wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Podvinci 1+ goals

73%

Podvinci 2+ goals

38%

Podvinci 3+ goals

14%

Brežice 1+ goals

77%

Brežice 2+ goals

43%

Brežice 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Podvinci (draw refunded)

45%

Brežice (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podvinci at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

Brežice away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podvinci attack 1.29 + Brežice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Brežice attack 1.58 + Podvinci defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Podvinci scores more

34%

level

25%

Brežice scores more

41%

Brežice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Brežice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff