Podunavac 3–0 Vojvodina 1928: Result & Stats

Podunavac

FT

3 – 0

Vojvodina 1928

9/15/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 5Stadion FK Podunavac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Podunavac59%

×Draw23%

Vojvodina 192818%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PodunavacExpected goals in this matchVojvodina 1928

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.85

Podunavac

1.78

Vojvodina 1928

0.85

Podunavac creates 109% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 43 away

1.38

creates per match

0.72

0.98

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Podunavac

1.38

Vojvodina 1928

0.72

allows per match

Podunavac

0.98

Vojvodina 1928

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podunavac+0.00on par

Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podunavac ↓

Vojvodina 1928 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Podunavac or draw

82%

Podunavac or Vojvodina 1928

77%

Draw or Vojvodina 1928

41%

Winning margin

Podunavac wins by 2+

34%

Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Podunavac 1+ goals

83%

Podunavac 2+ goals

53%

Podunavac 3+ goals

26%

Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals

57%

Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals

21%

Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Podunavac (draw refunded)

77%

Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podunavac at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.98 · 45 matches

Vojvodina 1928 away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podunavac attack 1.38 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.78

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.72 + Podunavac defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Podunavac scores more

59%

level

23%

Vojvodina 1928 scores more

18%

Podunavac at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Podunavac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff