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Podunavac vs Tisa Adorjan — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Podunavac
Podunavac
FT
2 – 1
Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
3/19/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 18Stadion FK Podunavac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Podunavac43%
×Draw25%
Tisa Adorjan32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podunavac
1.51
Tisa Adorjan
1.28

Podunavac creates 18% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 64 away

creates per match

Podunavac
1.38
Tisa Adorjan
1.58

allows per match

Podunavac
0.98
Tisa Adorjan
1.64

finishing

Podunavac+0.00on par
Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podunavac ↓

Tisa Adorjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Podunavac or draw
68%
Podunavac or Tisa Adorjan
75%
Draw or Tisa Adorjan
57%

Winning margin

Podunavac wins by 2+
21%
Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Podunavac 1+ goals
78%
Podunavac 2+ goals
44%
Podunavac 3+ goals
19%
Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
72%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
37%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Podunavac (draw refunded)
57%
Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podunavac at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.98 · 45 matches

Tisa Adorjan away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.64 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podunavac attack 1.38 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.51

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.58 + Podunavac defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Podunavac scores more
43%
level
25%
Tisa Adorjan scores more
32%

Podunavac at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Podunavac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Podunavac 2–1 Tisa Adorjan

Podunavac beat Tisa Adorjan 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Podunavac in Belegiš.